Performance Chart and Statistics

Performance Chart and Statistics

1 Jan 2015

Happy New Year

Had a couple of regular losses recently with a surprisingly mediocre performance by the SA bowlers in a test against WI and then rain drawing the match. I feel that there was too much guesswork in the past week.

But, now the tennis starts tonight, with the qualifiers for Adelaide. I just have to keep it tight and now that I am spoilt for choice, I dont need to push it and force myself to trade on every game. There are many matches.

Just so that I don't overdo it - I will trade with smaller stakes today, like 50 or 100, rather than a few hundred. I'll build some confidence over the next few days - then start staking more. Also need to be careful with players coming back in after a break and some really wierd and surprising things tend to happen at this time of the year.

Finally, the AUS open starts on 19th Jan so the two weeks from then will be very important with lots of profit potential.

26 Dec 2014

Boxing day football

Had a lucky and simple day. There were some Football matches which were good, and I basically went on all the favorites as discretionary calls - Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal. Also, for the last two I actually waited for the forst goals, so they were almost low backs - but cant really qualify as that because the chances of them popping up with one equaliser is huge. I therefore didn't bet more than 250. Just made 84 for the day, which is ok, considering there is no tennis and a one sided test match (SA vs WI). Tomorrow brings a good cricket game from Aus big bash t20 cricket - that will be standard trading match and hopefully I can spot some good trading opportunities to grab a few pips.
Charts and stats updated.

25 Dec 2014


So having thought about it a little bit, I can categorise almost all my trading into three main areas. And the first rule is to ensure that BEFORE I put on a trade, I need to be clear as to what type of trade it is. Once I am clear about that, I should be sticking to the guidelines of that particular type of trade so that I don't end up doing crazy stuff and most importantly, I dont end up changing the type of trade just because I'm in a loss and I dont want to take that loss. So here are the categories:

1. Get in get green get out: That's the first and most important one - that's the name of the blog and that's where I think I will make most of my money. These are basically trades where I get in at a point where I think the chances of the odds moving in a particular direction are very high, or that at some point of time, the odds will definitely trade at a particular point. I usually try to make about 5-10 pips on these trades. Things like backing a tennis player to hold his serve, or backing the receiver to break when 0-30 in WTA (they usually always break from there in WTA). Here, I need to be clear that that is what the trade will do and if it doesn't do it, then I have to think about ways of getting out and redding out. I dont EVER want to risk more than 500 and I usually aim to make about 50 or so.

2. Straight Calls: This is basically not really trading but literally calling the outcome of a match based on my knowledge and discretion. I do a lot of this in cricket and it has worked well. In tennis, I have also been able to spot some really good prices on players who were not supposed to win. These opportunities don't come often, so I need to be careful about not doing this just for the sake of it but wait for the right opportunities whenever they show up.I want to limit this to a maximum of 250 - never more than that. The reason, I want to risk less here is because the chances of me getting it wrong are quite high - cos noone can call matches correctly all the time.

3. Low backs: This is something I have been doing for a long time and it is also the culprit of most of my losses (and some profits) over the past few years. The thing here is that I do believe that there are some low backs which are just free money - but it is not always the case. If I try and find a low back in almost every match, then I'm dead - cos eventually one of them will pop. But, there are times when you do find these (particularly in cricket, when the chasing team has no chance - NOT t20, or a test match 5th day when the batting team has to survive the whole day with only 5-6 wickets left etc.). I will limit this to a max of 500 - no more. There are some situations which are expemt - namely t20 cricket, final sets in tennis and chasing teams in ODI cricket (cos a wicket falling changes everything). The key here is to find situations where volatility is very low and the chances of odds jumping from 1.05 to 1.5 in a few minutes is almost impossible - and even if it does happen it will happen slowly as the favorite starts to mess up.

That's basically it, trade number 1 will probably be the most traded, with 2 and 3 only happening when I see the opportunities - so I need to remember that I shouldn't do them unless I have high conviction and to always stick to whatever it is I'm doing.

Final thing is that it is a certainty that there will be losing days - there is no doubt there - but when it happens the main thing is to step away, and look at the big picture. The sooner I do it, the smaller the break in P&L will be - as I have seen many times in the past two months.

I will also follow a set process of withdrawing some of my profits after every two consecutive days of positive P&L. My betfair balance has now become irrelevant in my mind. My P&L record (the chart above) is basically all that counts. Everything else is just accounting. I aim to keep about 2k in the account - if it goes much higher than that, I'll withdraw.

23 Dec 2014

Small break before the real action starts

So, I have made it to Christmas with being only 800-900 below my high - which is quite good.
There is nothing more for the next three days in cricket, tennis or football. After that quite a few important and big cricket matches start as well as a few high profile football matches, followed by the first proper tennis tournament in Adelaide a week or so later.

I will treat everything else in this month as part of January's P&L and my target for the month is to make 5000. It sounds like a lot, but if I keep it tight and steady, I think it is achievable even with the fair share of unlucky games etc. The main difference from Nov/Dec is that January will have at least 10 (probably more) tennis matches every day which basically makes all the difference - so that I dont have to push it becuase there is always another match. What should not happen is some kind of idiotic mental breakdown on my part. So I will now spend time thinking of some rules and guidelines to avoid that.

Apart from that everything the rest will take care of itself - I just need to make sure that the brain farts do not happen - even once. Here are the UK wallet and AUS wallet for the whole time since I started this thread (hopefully, I will never start a thread ever again and this one will keep going on and on and on and on):

20 Dec 2014


So from the chart, it is clear that I am stuck in a range between 2k and 3k and I'm right at the top of the range now. Hopefully, this time I will break out of it. There are some things to note here though - Firstly, this is probably the worst time in the year for me, cos there is no proper tennis with just one or two cricket matches in a day, so I really cant pick and choose and have to accept what's there.

Anyway, so there are about two more weeks before the first tournament at Brisbane starts and just need to keep it steady until then. There are some good cricket and football options, so I will try and keep it tight.

For January, I am aiming to make about five thousand or so for the whole month - OK, so I have never really done that before, but if you look at the past week, it looks like this:

Of course I did have a slide down before this, but I have been thinking about what happened and why it happened and I keep coming back to the same reason - there isn't enough out there to trade so I have to keep jumping at every match. That, and also that after a loss, I need to step back and take a break. Anyway, so if the last seven days, where there wasn't really much available, I can make a thousand, then it should be reasonable to think that in January, where there are going to be many matches in a day, and I can take my time to pick and choose and just be very careful, it should be easier to do this every week. Sure, I will have some down weeks, but hopefully not as much as I've had in December. If you look at the first few weeks of my P&L (on the right, weekly P&L), you will see that they were stellar - and that is when the Valencia tennis tournament was on and then the Barclays ATP world tour.

Anyway, there isn't much to trade today so will probably be no more today.

12 Dec 2014

Down up Down up

Im still good and hanging around at pretty much the same point. There is some tennis in the IPTL and I have been doing well in those so far. Just a few cricket matches where I got the calls wrong and some pretty unexpected things happened. Otherwise, overall everything is moving the right direction and I am looking forward to the tennis starting on 04th Jan. My last 7 days look like this:

5 Dec 2014

Up Down Up Down Up

Thats what last week felt like. Had a couple of unlucky matches in Football which kept eating into the regular profits from Cricket, but has been slow and steady after that.

Here is a screenshot for the last week or so. It has been pretty smooth sailing - and I am hoping that most of the time it will feel like this rather than too much drama. Now that I am not targetting huge returns, it is becoming easier and easier to trade.